Assessing the impact of climate change on wind energy potential in Brazil’s capitals: a long-term Weibull parameter analysis (1960–2020)

Abstract

Brazil’s vast territory and favorable wind conditions have positioned it as a global leader in wind energy development. Accurate assessment of wind resources is essential for the feasibility of wind farms, particularly in the context of climate change. This study analyzes wind speed data from 27 Brazilian capitals (1960–2020) obtained from the CRUA database, using the two-parameter Weibull distribution to estimate the shape (k) and scale (c) parameters. Performance was evaluated through root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and relative error (RE). Results show an average c value of 2.36 m/s and an average k value of 5.95, with R² averaging 0.9797, confirming the suitability of the Weibull method. Analysis of long-term trends revealed increases in wind energy density in 17 capitals (1–23%), decreases in 7 capitals (-6% to -0.2%), and stability in 2 capitals. Altitude was found to influence the Weibull parameters, with k increasing and c decreasing at higher elevations. Climate change impacts on wind potential in Brazil were found to be region-specific, reinforcing the need for localized adaptation strategies. These findings contribute to the optimization of wind energy planning and climate resilience policies.