FORECASTING REGIONAL SOLAR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS MODEL
Abstract
The article substantiates the conditions and limitations of using the modified DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model for forecasting the development of solar energy (SES) at the regional level of Ukraine. The input (average annual total solar radiation level, current electricity consumption by enterprises, average monthly household expenses (total)) and output (technically achievable (theoretical) installed capacity of SES, electricity generation potential of SES, installed capacity of distributed generation (total), reduction of CO2 emissions) factors of solar energy development are determined. The weight of input/output factors was determined based on expert assessment using the ordinal ranking method. To minimize individual bias, the analysis of expert assessments was carried out during three joint iterative rounds, during which the aggregated results of expert assessments were discussed and a consensus was reached. As a basis for forecasting the development of solar power plants at the level of individual regional energy systems/regions, official indicators of installed capacity as of 2022 and adjusted for the level of destruction of energy infrastructure in 2023-2024 were adopted. Based on the DEA model, an indicator of relative territorial efficiency of the implementation of solar power plants projects was calculated, which is considered integral and determines the objective prerequisites for the relative rates of development of solar energy between regions. For each region, forecast indicators of installed capacity of solar power plants were calculated for the period until 2030 and the potential for using the technically achievable (theoretical) level of installed capacity of solar power plants at the end of the forecasting period was determined. Forecasting materials can be useful to state and local governments in developing regional policies for the development of distributed generation, in particular based on solar energy.