Optimizing Vaccination Strategies for Polio Eradication: A Case Study on Adaptive Supplementary Vaccination Campaigns Implementation in Nigeria

Abstract

Thanks to extensive efforts by global and local health organizations, there has been much progress towards eradicating Polio; however, disease transmission and outbreaks continue to occur in some geographic areas. Recent guidelines for polio outbreak response emphasize strengthening routine immunization and implementing at least two rounds of high-coverage supplementary vaccination campaigns to curb the virus’ spread. However, operational challenges often create obstacles in vaccine delivery and coverage, limiting campaign effectiveness.Our research addresses these challenges by examining the complex interplay between vaccination coverage, timing, and their impact on outbreak size and cost-effectiveness. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of various vaccination strategies, assessing their potential to mitigate outbreaks and optimize resource allocation. Our study focused on the role of supplementary vaccination campaigns and explored approaches to integrate these campaigns into broader immunization efforts.To provide a robust comparison of different scenarios, we modified an existing simulation model that incorporates an automatic mechanism for initiating supplementary vaccination campaigns based on predefined detection thresholds. Our simulation results offer an analysis of the balance between outbreak reduction and resource allocation, providing a basis for future decision-making in vaccination strategy planning.