Ethiopia missed opportunities for vaccination study: Cluster-randomized evaluation of 5-dose measles vaccine vials and a flexible open-vial policy, 2021–2022

Abstract

Introduction: In 2024, an estimated 95,000 people died from measles globally, largely from suboptimal coverage with the measles-containing vaccine (MCV). Health workers may defer vaccinating eligible children to avoid wasting doses from 10-dose MCV vials, which must be discarded six hours after opening. These missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) reduce coverage and timeliness. Ethiopia, which provides MCV at 9 and 15 months, considered switching to 5-dose vials. Methods: We conducted a 15-month, randomized controlled trial with a nested cross-sectional design in Ethiopia. Sixty woredas were randomized to: (1) policy-only, instructing health workers to open 10-dose vials for any number of eligible children, with additional stock for increased wastage; (2) 5-dose switch, combining this policy with replacement of 10-dose by 5-dose vials; or (3) control (routine 10-dose practice). Household and health-facility surveys at baseline and endline assessed effects on first-dose (MCV1) and second-dose (MCV2) coverage, MCV1 timeliness, and wastage. Generalized estimating equation models estimated net intervention effects versus control. We also estimated the government cost of a nationwide 5-dose switch. Results: MCV1 coverage was similar between policy-only and control (adjusted risk difference [ARD] = −1%, 95%CI: −17%, 15%), with no significant differences in MCV1 timeliness or MCV2 coverage. In the 5-dose switch group, MCV1 coverage changed little (ARD = 1%, 95%CI: −17%, 18%), but timely MCV1 at 9 months (ARD = 18%, 95%CI: 7%, 28%) and MCV2 coverage (ARD = 17%, 95%CI: 1%, 34%) rose significantly, and wastage fell (ARD = −7%, 95%CI: −14%, −1%). By endline, 29% of 5-dose health workers opened vials ≥10 times monthly (none in control); caregivers in both intervention groups reported 11% fewer measles-related MOVs. A nationwide 5-dose switch was estimated to save 17% in procurement cost per fully vaccinated (two-dose) child. Conclusions: The combined 5-dose intervention improved MCV1 timeliness and MCV2 coverage and reduced wastage, addressing a key operational barrier and potentially supporting measles elimination in Ethiopia.