Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle

Abstract

In the process of development and operation of transport vehicles, such as automobiles, aircraft, ships, etc., simulation modeling is often used to assess the suitability of certain technical solutions. This approach is particularly relevant when it is necessary to analyze the behavior of a complex system under conditions of uncertainty, where full-scale testing is impractical. This article simulates a vehicle's route on a map taking into account various external influences. The dynamics of the vehicle's state change are simulated based on specified failure patterns of individual components and subsystems, as well as considering the impact of various external factors on these components and subsystems. This simulation model can be used for an integral assessment of the ability to complete a route, the reliability of a vehicle when interacting with adverse external factors, identifying critical sections of the route where the probability of failure is highest, and comparing different configurations of installed equipment. The model is intended for specialists in the design and operation of various technical systems requiring high reliability. The simulation results can be used to optimize maintenance and improve operational safety.