Digitalization and Institutional Capacity as Factors of National Security of Countries: Matrix Analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a methodological approach for assessing the relationship between the level of digitalization and the institutional capacity of countries in the context of national security. The proposed methodology is based on the construction of a Digitalization and Institutional Security Matrix that makes it possible to identify the consistency between digital development, institutional quality, and human capital, as well as to classify countries according to their development trajectories. The methodological framework includes the calculation of an integrated Digitalization Index based on five indicators of the digital environment and an Institutional Security Index reflecting institutional quality and human capital development. Following min–max normalization, integrated indices were calculated and median values were used as threshold parameters to construct a four-quadrant matrix. An additional percentile analysis was applied to identify countries with relatively stronger or weaker positions within each quadrant. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of an integrated analytical framework that combines digital and institutional dimensions within a single assessment model. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed methodology makes it possible to identify structural imbalances between technological development and institutional capacity that may affect national security. The comparative analysis of country distributions for 2022 and 2024 revealed a growing asymmetry between digitalization and institutional capacity. The increase in the number of countries characterized by an imbalance between these components indicates that technological development and institutional adaptation are becoming increasingly uneven. The analysis also confirmed that the most favorable development model combines a high level of digitalization with strong institutions, whereas discrepancies between these components create additional governance and cybersecurity risks. The practical significance of the proposed approach lies in its applicability for comparative international assessments, monitoring digital transformation, identifying institutional and technological imbalances, and supporting evidence-based public policy aimed at strengthening national security under conditions of rapid digital transformation.