Dimensions of climate change perception among smallholder farmers in Wolaita zone southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate variability poses increasing risks to smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, particularly in regions dependent on rainfed agriculture. This study examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and identifies the underlying perception dimensions using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in Wolaita Zone, southern Ethiopia. Using a cross-sectional design, data were collected from 363 households through surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. A five-point Likert scale captured fourteen perception indicators, which were further analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify major dimensions shaping farmers’ climate understanding and adaptive behavior. The findings reveal strong perceptions of rising temperature, recurrent water stress, and increasing climate-induced crop and livestock losses. Farmers widely reported crop failure due to water shortages and heightened pest and disease incidences over the past decade. Rainfall trends were perceived as highly unpredictable, reflecting growing uncertainty in seasonal patterns. PCA reduced fourteen perception indicators into five components explaining 56.05% of total variance, with drought and water scarcity emerging as the most dominant dimension (15.5%). Farmers reported adaptation responses such as crop diversification, adjustment of planting dates, use of improved crop varieties, soil and water conservation practices, small-scale irrigation, and livelihood diversification. The findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions including localized climate information services, strengthened institutional support, and targeted interventions particularly water-management strategies and climate-smart agronomic practices to enhance resilience in smallholder systems.