Sinkholes Susceptibility and Spatial Analysis in the Caserta Province (Campania, Southern Italy): A Review using Multidisciplinary GIS-Based Approach with Kernel Density Estimation

Abstract

The Province of Caserta shows marked geological complexity from the interaction of Apennine structures, alluvial plains, volcanic systems and karst domains shaped by multistage tectonic and volcanic processes. This geodiversity increases scientific value but also susceptibility to geohazards such as sinkholes. A multidisciplinary approach investigates sinkhole genesis and controls, considering lithological heterogeneity, especially carbonate massifs and volcanic deposits of the Roccamonfina and Phlegraean Fields, together with the regional hydrogeological setting. The study integrates geological, volcanological, structural and hydrogeological data through analysis of 39 ISPRA catalogued sinkholes (to 2022) and 71 newly identified events (to 2025). The aim is to provide a preliminary GIS based susceptibility assessment using Kernel Density Estimation to identify clustering and high probability areas, supporting future development of a probabilistic conceptual model for hazard mitigation.