Techno-economic feasibility assesment of photovoltaic-based green hydrogen production for a 2000 MTPD ammonia plant

Abstract

Conventional Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) remains the dominant technology for hydrogen production in ammonia plants, but its dependence on fossil fuels generates substantial CO 2 emissions. This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of supplying large-scale green hydrogen from photovoltaic (PV) electricity for a 2, 000 MTPD ammonia facility in Aceh, Indonesia. Using a transparent HOMER Pro optimization framework, two configurations were assessed: (i) a standalone PV system with BESS (off-grid) and (ii) a PV system integrated with the PLN grid and supported by Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) (on-grid). Key assumptions, including resource profiles, component lifetimes, an 8% discount rate, and economic indicators such as NPC, LCOE, and LCOH, are explicitly defined. The off-grid scenario requires a CAPEX of IDR 157 trillion and produces an LCOH of IDR 99, 900 kg –1 , while the on-grid system requires IDR 89 trillion with an LCOH of IDR 59, 700 kg –1 , with emissions compensated through RECs. Although both systems remain more capital-intensive than SMR, the on-grid scheme reduces LCOH by 40%, indicating near-term competitiveness as PV and electrolyser costs decline. This study provides a reproducible benchmark for low-carbon ammonia development in Indonesia.