Reverse Flood Routing for Upstream Hydrograph Reconstruction: Methods, Challenges, and Future Directions—A State-of-the-Art Review

Abstract

Flood forecasting often depends on upstream hydrographs that are unavailable, incomplete, or unreliable. Reverse Flood Routing (RFR) addresses this gap by reconstructing upstream inflows from downstream observations, yet its operational use remains limited by numerical instability, observational uncertainty, and the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem. This review critically synthesizes RFR methodologies across a physics–fidelity continuum, ranging from storage-based and simplified hydraulic models to full hydrodynamic inversions, optimization-based techniques, Bayesian approaches, and emerging data-driven methods. The reviewed approaches are compared in terms of physical realism, numerical stability, computational demand, data requirements, uncertainty treatment, and field applicability. The synthesis indicates that storage-based methods remain attractive for data-limited and computationally constrained applications, whereas full hydrodynamic models are better suited to complex flow conditions involving backwater effects and detailed channel hydraulics. Optimization-based and Bayesian approaches can improve parameter estimation and uncertainty representation, while hybrid AI–physics methods offer promise for computational acceleration but still require stronger physical constraints and broader operational validation. Across all methodological families, error amplification, lateral inflow, transmission losses, and inconsistent benchmarking remain persistent limitations. An integrated framework is therefore proposed to connect observations, model selection, regularization, uncertainty quantification, hybrid computational methods, and operational decision support, providing a roadmap for more reliable and scalable RFR applications.