Perceived Climate Variability and Smallholder Maize Production in Kaduna State, Nigeria

Abstract

Maize (Zea mays) is a vital staple crop for food security and rural livelihoods across the West African Northern Guinea Savannah. However, changing weather patterns pose severe operational risks to smallholder rainfed agricultural systems. This study evaluates smallholder maize farmers' socio-economic profiles, assesses their perceptions of climate variability, quantifies the perceived impacts of microclimatic shifts on grain yields, and ranks key adaptation barriers in Kaduna State, Nigeria. A multi-stage sampling framework was used to select 120 smallholders across three agroecological zones. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression model. Findings revealed that 94.2% of farmers were male, with a mean age of 36.3 years, 10.3 years of farming experience, a mean farm size of 1.67 ha, and average household size of 6 persons. The mean maize yield was 1,850.5 kg/ha (SD = 420.3). OLS regression analysis (R2 = 0.642, F (6, 113) = 33.78, p < 0.001) indicated that perceived rainfall instability (β = -142.30 kg/ha, p = 0.004) and perceived thermal stress (β = -98.60 kg/ha, p = 0.012) significantly reduced maize output per ha. Conversely, access to drought-tolerant seed varieties (β = 215.40 kg/ha, p = 0.001) and extension contact frequency (β = 48.20 kg/ha/visit, p = 0.008) significantly enhanced yield outcomes. Financial deficits (MBS = 4.45) and limited access to early-maturing hybrid seeds (MBS = 4.20) as primary constraints to climate-smart adaptation. Enhancing smallholder resilience requires transitioning from reactive coping mechanisms to structured policy support (localised digital climate advisories and subsidised drought-tolerant hybrid seeds).