Asynchronous Land-Use Change and Surface Thermal Variability in Nepal, 2000–2023: Drivers and Implications for Himalayan Mountain System Resilience

Abstract

The vertical redistribution of human activities and surface thermal changes poses challenges to Himalayan resilience. Using Nepal’s 77 districts, this study integrates land-use maps for 2000, 2020, and 2023 with annual MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data for 2000–2023. Trend analysis, fixed thermal thresholds, displacement correspondence tests, lag analysis, and GeoDetector were employed to examine land-use restructuring, thermal variability, and their spatial associations. Results show that: (1) Built-up land expanded from 527 to 1817 km2, with its mean elevation increasing from 412 to 617 m. However, national mean LST, fixed-threshold hot-area extent, and hot-area mean elevation exhibited no significant monotonic trends. (2) Land-use and thermal displacements showed no consistent spatial correspondence or stable temporal lag, indicating regional vertical decoupling rather than delayed thermal migration. (3) Built-up expansion was positively associated with local LST trends. (4) Spatial associations between thermal heterogeneity and elevation, built-up land proportion, and population density, highlighting the spatial heterogeneity of topographic conditions and human activities in relation to regional thermal changes. These asynchronous vertical responses highlight potential development and ecological pressures in mid-elevation transition zones, suggesting a shift from predominantly horizontal spatial regulation toward elevation-sensitive, vertically adaptive planning for Himalayan resilience.