Modeling adaptive management of an enterprise’s economic potential, accounting for integration risks
Abstract
The article substantiates a complex dynamic economic and mathematical model of adaptive management of enterprise economic potential under macroeconomic volatility and European integration risks. It shows that under VUCA conditions, traditional linear planning systems lose controllability, necessitating a shift to adaptive management based on continuous self-organization and feedback control loops. A five-component phase-state vector of economic potential is established, integrating production-technological, financial-investment, innovative-ecological, intellectual-human, and digital-analytical sub-potentials. Integration risks are classified across six core categories (regulatory-legal, CBAM carbon adjustments, technical standards, cross-border logistics, market dumping, and human capacity), with their transmission channels formalized via a parametric susceptibility matrix. The scientific novelty lies in constructing a dynamic state-space model that incorporates a recursive Kalman filter to smooth observational noise and dynamically update model parameters in real time. To address deep Knightian uncertainty, the study implements a minimax optimization framework based on the Wald–Bellman criterion, ensuring enterprise viability under the most adverse risk scenarios. The study conceptualizes three strategic management scenarios (preventive-conservative, modernization-compensatory, and radical-transformational) and maps aggregate integration risk loads to optimal capital allocation strategies. Finally, the authors develop a six-stage cyclic algorithm based on double-loop learning principles that transforms exogenous risk shocks into drivers of structural modernization. The model’s practical value lies in providing corporate management with an analytical toolkit to stress-test business models, optimize financial reserve buffers, and guide capital investment programs to meet EU technical, environmental, and climate regulations. Keywords: adaptive management, economic potential, European integration risks, Kalman filter, minimax optimization, CBAM, state space, sub-potentials.