Projected impacts of future offshore wind farms on coastal precipitation over the Northwest European shelf

Abstract

Offshore wind energy plays a central role in reaching the European Green Deal target of a climate-neutral Europe by 2050. In this study, we simulate offshore wind development for 2023, 2030, and beyond 2050 across the Northwest-European Shelf, using various turbine sizes over a 10-year period, an approach not previously undertaken. For the post-2050 scenario, we assess the maximum potential deployment within all currently identified development zones in North Sea countries. Results indicate that large-scale offshore wind farm expansion can reduce surface wind speeds by up to 2–3 m s⁻¹. Notably for post-2050 scenario, precipitation decreases by 10–12% in coastal regions of Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, and by more than 15% in parts of Jutland, Denmark, particularly under south-westerly winds. Conversely, precipitation increases over the wind farm areas. These findings suggest that extensive offshore wind deployment may significantly alter regional climate patterns, highlighting the need for further multi-model investigations to reduce uncertainty. Large scale offshore wind may reduce coastal precipitation by 10–15 percent and wind speeds by 2–3 meters per second while increasing rainfall over farms, according to decade long simulations of scenarios for 2023 to beyond 2050 across the Northwest European Shelf and Baltic Sea.