Economic incentives for conifers may limit broadleaf expansion in climate-adaptive European forests

Abstract

Forests are increasingly affected by climate change, highlighting the necessity of adaptive management to sustain ecosystem services. Yet adaptation is complicated by the interplay between ecological and socioeconomic considerations. We used an informed questionnaire to survey a selected group of forest professionals across different European sites, focusing on how perceptions of climate and socioeconomic change drive adaptive management choices. Here we show that professionals broadly agree on the negative impacts of climate change, with drought emerging as the dominant high-risk factor, while perceived socioeconomic change reflects rising timber demand and prices alongside higher operational costs. Professionals rank species diversity, mixing broadleaf and conifer species, and assisted natural regeneration as the priority adaptive measures, yet anticipated timber price increases lead a quarter of respondents to favor maintaining or increasing conifer shares. Economic expectations can change adaptation choices, highlighting a tension between ecological resilience and socioeconomic priorities that forest policy needs to address. Drought, is perceived as a major threat to European forests, and while professionals prioritize species diversity, broadleaf-conifer mixtures, and assisted regeneration, timber price increases may favor maintaining conifers, according to survey of forest professionals.