DETERMINANTS OF RICE PRODUCTIVITY ON THE ISLAND OF JAVA

Abstract

Rice productivity is a critical indicator in agricultural sector development, as it contributes to food availability and strengthens regional food security. Java Island, as the center of national rice production, exhibits a relatively high level of rice productivity, influenced by economic factors, agroclimatic conditions, and government policies related to the agricultural sector during the 2018–2024 period. This study aims to analyze the effects of agroclimatic factors, agricultural sector Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), pump irrigation development, agricultural microcredit (KUR), and the Price Index Received by Farmers (It) for the rice subsector on rice productivity in Java Island. This study employs panel data regression, with model selection conducted through the Chow Test and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Test, resulting in the Common Effect Model (CEM) as the best-fitting model. The results indicate that agricultural sector GRDP and rainfall have a positive and significant effect on rice productivity, whereby both variables contribute to increasing rice productivity. Pump irrigation development shows a positive but insignificant effect. Meanwhile, agricultural KUR and the Price Index Received by Farmers (It) for the rice subsector have a negative and significant effect on rice productivity, suggesting that increased financing and prices received by farmers do not necessarily lead to higher productivity, with It identified as the most dominant variable based on its coefficient value. The findings imply that enhancing rice productivity in Java Island requires effective water resource management, improved efficiency in agricultural KUR disbursement, and comprehensive strengthening of the agricultural sector to support sustainable rice productivity growth.