Predictive Modeling of Failure States in Manufacturing Systems Using Artificial Intelligence in the Context of Sustainability

Abstract

This study investigates predictive modeling of failure states in manufacturing systems using artificial intelligence in the context of sustainable maintenance and Industry 4.0. The proposed methodological framework is based on historical operational and maintenance data from a single manufacturing device, encompassing multiple process and operational signals such as vibrations, temperature, electric current, and operational logs. The aim is to predict failure within a short-term horizon to support maintenance planning. The article compares Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms at different prediction horizons (8 h and 16 h) to identify the trade-off between classification accuracy and lead time for maintenance planning. Model outputs are analyzed using explainable artificial intelligence and transformed into a risk index compatible with the FMEA methodology. The practical contribution of the proposed approach is illustrated through a scenario-based what-if assessment of potential sustainability impacts, particularly in terms of estimated reductions in unplanned downtime, material waste, and energy consumption. The results point to the potential of integrating AI-supported maintenance as a tool for increasing the reliability and sustainability of manufacturing systems. The novelty of the proposed framework lies in the integration of predictive maintenance, explainable artificial intelligence, replay-based maintenance assessment, dynamic FMEA risk assessment, and sustainability impact quantification into a unified decision-support framework.