Formalization of multiplicative risks in transient processes within water supply systems of thermal power enterprises
Abstract
Under conditions of systemic instability and increasing military threats to critical infrastructure, the mathematical formalization of multiplicative risks in high-load inertial water supply systems of thermal power plants has become particularly relevant. Traditional reliability assessment methods fail to account for the cascading nature of transients in compact technological units, where limited internal volume accelerates the hydrodynamic shock phase, and delays in parameter control lead to non-linear growth of destructive consequences. Analysis of technical failure scenarios indicates that risk is formed as a result of the synergistic interaction between a power trigger, the dynamic vulnerability function, and dynamic pressure. To ensure the dynamic parametric adaptability of equipment, this study develops a mathematical approach to formalizing multiplicative risk, integrating inertial flow coast-down parameters and the millisecond response time of protection systems. The study establishes the integral risk model, based on the determination of the system's «vulnerability window», allowing for a quantitative assessment of the transition from local failure to the cascading destruction of electrocoagulation unit components. Modeling results demonstrate that: 1) the proposed approach enables the identification of the critical impact of protection systems' response time on the peak shock amplitude, which significantly refines the resilience limits of compact systems; 2) the introduction of an exponential vulnerability function provides a justification for the required automation response time to break the accident cascade; 3) the model proves the advantages of a preventive time-parameter management strategy as the basis for dynamic parametric adaptability over increasing the physical strength of structures; 4) the application of the model creates a foundation for designing systems capable of maintaining functionality under wartime energy deficits; 5) the developed approach establishes a methodological framework for the modernization of Ukraine's thermal power facilities, aimed at minimizing technogenic losses in crisis modes.