Managing climate-induced resource conflicts in developing countries: Lessons from Borno State

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major driver of insecurity, particularly in developing countries where institutional capacity is weak. In Borno State, Nigeria, prolonged droughts, desertification, and erratic rainfall patterns have intensified competition over scarce natural resources, fueling violent conflicts between farmers, pastoralists, and other local communities. This study examines the mechanisms through which climate-induced resource scarcity escalates into violent conflict and evaluates the effectiveness of existing conflict management strategies in mitigating these tensions. This study adopts a mixed-methods design that integrates remote sensing techniques highlighting forest cover change, climate data such as rainfall variability and temperature anomalies, georeferenced conflict datasets, and displacement statistics with household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions with affected communities, local authorities, and security actors. Analytical approaches include spatial econometrics, difference-in-differences estimation, GIS hotspot analysis, and systems dynamics modelling with a theoretical framework that integrates Environmental Security Theory (EST), Resource Scarcity Theory (RST), and State Fragility Theory (SFT). Findings reveal that weak governance, inadequate conflict resolution mechanisms, and socio-economic vulnerabilities exacerbate the impact of climate stress on local security. Based on these insights, the study proposes a policy-oriented framework for managing climate-induced resource conflicts, emphasising proactive community engagement, adaptive governance, and integrated security-environmental interventions. The research contributes to both theory and practice by offering lessons applicable to other developing countries facing similar challenges, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated climate-security strategies in fragile contexts.