The Shift in the Regional Balance of Power after the 2023 Gaza: A Reading in Political and Economic Interactions

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to demonstrate the fundamental shifts in the regional power balances in the Middle East following the Al-Aqsa Flood events (October 2023 and thereafter). The research problem was manifested in an inquiry into how this confrontation served as a pivotal turning point in the political and realistic movements among local parties (Israel, the Arab axis, Iran) and international ones (America, China, Russia), relying on a reflective methodology and a systems analysis approach. The study clarified that the conflict resulted in a slight retreat in Israel’s strategic and deterrent capabilities, and an actual halt in coordination channels, which indirectly confirmed the dominance of the Iranian axis and highlighted the effectiveness of non-state actors on the realistic level. The study speculated that the turmoil caused significant disruption in vital exchange routes (the Red Sea and the Suez Canal), necessitating a reassessment of geopolitical risks on energy markets and global exchanges. It also allowed greater opportunities for competing great powers to strengthen their influence. The study concluded that the local structure is heading towards greater divergence, compelling Arab states to reconsider their alliances and their security and financial trajectories.