THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE GEOPOLITICAL BALANCE OF POWER IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CONTEXT OF COMPETITION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO/EU

Abstract

This article addresses the geopolitical power competition between Russia and NATO/EU in the South Caucasus, with a special focus on integration processes and energy security. In particular, it analyzes NATO's approaches and points of conflicting interests in the South Caucasus as reflected in strategic documents. The study demonstrates that Russia secures its influence through both bilateral relations and multilateral structures, notably the CSTO. At the same time, NATO applies a multilayered and dynamic approach in the region (e.g., the "Partnership for Peace" program), the study of which is essential for understanding current regional developments and trends in international relations. The novelty of the research stems from viewing the transformation of the balance of power within a neorealist analytical framework, combining five interconnected factors: military presence, reconfiguration of alliances, energy and transport corridors, multi-vector policies, and global crises. The analysis shows that, particularly in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, Russia's resource constraints and the West's growing activity have intensified competitive dynamics, giving rise to a multipolar environment in which the three South Caucasus states (Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia) exhibit significantly differentiated strategic behavior. Based on a comparative analysis of these two structures, the article concludes that the security system of the Republic of Armenia—combining state and regional realities—must build its own security architecture through the harmonization of existing interests and the diversification of its foreign policy.