Development of Approaches to Justifying Investment Decisions in E-Commerce

Abstract

Subject. Investment activity and management decision‑making processes in the high‑tech segment of e‑commerce. Objectives. Comprehensive development and modernization of qualitative and quantitative methods for substantiating investment projects in e‑commerce, taking into account the specifics of the digital environment and the high volatility of markets. Methods. The study applies methods of logical, systemic and comparative analysis. It uses adapted strategic management models, upgraded corporate finance metrics, as well as stochastic modelling and predictive tools of machine learning. Results. The fundamental limitations of traditional deterministic models from the industrial era are substantiated when applied to high‑tech projects. A qualitatively new approach to the selection of investment initiatives has been developed, based on a digital readiness matrix. A system of specific financial indicators is proposed, and the necessity of implementing probabilistic models (fuzzy real options) and artificial intelligence algorithms (ensemble methods) for predictive assessment of unit economics and hedging of extreme risks is demonstrated. Conclusions. Adequate assessment of investments in the e‑commerce segment requires a shift from static linear extrapolation to stochastic analysis based on big data. The implementation of the developed modified approaches moves the investment decision‑making process into the realm of data analytics, enabling corporate management to avoid cash flow gaps and properly evaluate managerial flexibility.