Factors influencing the formation and realization of enterprise export potential in a volatile international environment

Abstract

The article examines the factors that determine the formation and realization of enterprise export potential in an international environment characterized by growing geoeconomic fragmentation, changing trade regimes, high logistical and security uncertainty, digitalization of foreign economic operations, and stricter requirements for product quality, traceability, and environmental compliance. The study substantiates the need to distinguish between the formation of export potential and its realization. The former concerns the accumulation and development of production, financial, human, innovation and technological, marketing and organizational capabilities. At the same time, the latter reflects the ability to convert these capabilities into sustainable foreign sales under specific market-access conditions. Using systemic, structural-dynamic and comparative approaches, the study analyzes changes in Ukraine’s merchandise exports in 2021–2025. The structure therefore remains highly sensitive to commodity-market conditions. At the same time, the recovery of maritime logistics in 2024, deeper trade integration with the EU, and firms’ adaptation to alternative distribution routes show that logistics and institutional conditions can rapidly change how much already-formed export potential is realized. The article proposes a two-contour classification of influencing factors: an external adaptive contour and an internal capability contour. The article also differentiates factors by stage of impact: formation, realization, or both. External factors include market conditions, trade regulation, security and geopolitical risks, logistics and infrastructure, currency and finance, and technological and environmental requirements. Internal factors include production resources, finance and investment, innovation and technology, human capital, quality and certification, marketing intelligence, digitalization, organization and management, and partnership networks. In a volatile international environment, export performance depends not only on the scale of individual resources but primarily on aligning internal capabilities with external market parameters and on how quickly firms can reconfigure them. The proposed framework can be applied to diagnose export readiness, identify realization gaps, and design adaptive export strategies. Keywords: export potential, enterprise, exports, international environment, influencing factors, export capacity, logistics, international markets, adaptability, dynamic capabilities.