THE TRANSFORMATION OF RUSSIA’S GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AFTER 2020

Abstract

The article examines the transformation of the geopolitical interests of the Russian Federation in the South Caucasus in the context of the new military and political reality that emerged after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020. The study demonstrates that a region previously perceived as an area of Russia’s relative dominance has gradually evolved into a multipolar and competitive environment, influenced by the growing role of Turkey, increased Western involvement, and the consequences of the Russia–Ukraine war. The paper analyzes Russia’s military-political and alliance relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with particular attention to the role of the CSTO, the EAEU, and bilateral legal frameworks. It highlights the erosion of trust in Armenian–Russian relations and the deepening of allied cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan. The use of “frozen conflicts” is also examined as a key instrument for maintaining political and military influence in the region. A separate section is devoted to the strategic importance of South Caucasus transit routes and energy corridors, especially within the framework of the North–South and East–West corridors. The geopolitical implications of the so-called “Trump Route” and Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative are analyzed as competing models of regional connectivity, sovereignty, and security. The article concludes that the transformation of Russia’s geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus is an ongoing process, largely dependent on the outcome of the Russia–Ukraine war and the emergence of a new regional balance of power.