THE WEST ASIA CONFLICT AND ITS IMPACT ON MARITIME AFFAIRS: A GEOPOLITICAL AND BLUE ECONOMY ANALYSIS OF THE RED SEA, STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND SUEZ CANAL

Abstract

Abstract Ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, particularly across the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Red Sea, pose a systemic threat to global maritime stability. Through a systematic qualitative content analysis of institutional reports, geopolitical literature, and ocean economy studies, this paper examines how hybrid warfare and asymmetric threats disrupt global shipping operations, inflate logistics costs, alter commercial transit routes, increase carbon emissions, and threaten the broader blue economy. The empirical findings indicate that rerouting commercial vessels around the Cape of Good Hope increases transit times by 10 to 14 days, driving spot freight rates up by 150 percent to 200 percent, while simultaneously boosting bunker fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by up to 35 percent per voyage. Furthermore, war risk insurance premiums imposed by international underwriters spike vessel operating costs by an additional 0.5 percent to 1.0 percent of total vessel valuation per crossing. By integrating Neoclassical Realism with World Systems Theory, the study illustrates how localized asymmetric conflict in semi-peripheral maritime corridors triggers structural supply chain shocks across core economic hubs. Ultimately, the paper synthesises these findings into a comprehensive maritime resilience framework that highlights advanced technological integration, multilateral naval coordination, multimodal infrastructure, and sustainable ocean governance.