Climate-Driven Changes in Potential Suitable Habitat of Protegira songi in China Under Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Simple Summary Protegira songi is a monophagous defoliating pest that feeds exclusively on Eucommia ulmoides, an economically and medicinally important tree species widely cultivated in China. Climate change may modify the potential suitable habitat of this pest, with implications for future monitoring and management strategies. In this study, we applied a MaxEnt species distribution model integrating occurrence records and environmental variables to evaluate the current and future potential suitable habitat of P. songi under different climate scenarios. The results indicated that climatic factors, particularly the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), were key environmental variables associated with the potential suitable habitat of P. songi. Currently, suitable habitats were mainly concentrated in central and southwestern China. Under future climate scenarios, core suitable areas were projected to remain relatively stable, whereas peripheral regions were projected to undergo changes in habitat suitability and spatial pattern of suitable areas. These findings provide valuable insights for climate-informed monitoring and sustainable management of P. songi under future climate change.