Projected contraction of climatically suitable habitat for the forest-specialist anuran Quasipaa acanthophora under climate change in northern Vietnam

Abstract

Anthropogenic impacts, including habitat loss and overexploitation, in combination with climate change, have resulted in rapid population declines and even local extirpations in many amphibians. As an endemic amphibian species in northern Vietnam, Quasipaa acanthophora is endangered by combined human impacts and potential effects of climate change, similar to other amphibian and reptile species occurring in the same habitats. In this study, we applied the Maximum Entropy algorithm in MaxEnt software to predict the current suitable habitats and their shifts in the future under scenarios of climate change. As the current prediction, the potential distribution of Q. acanthophora covers the known occurrence sites, including Lang Son, Bac Ninh, Quang Ninh provinces, in northeastern Vietnam, and extends to the southern border of Guangxi Province, China, with a total area of approximately 1,779 km 2 within the study area, 1,567 km 2 in the tropical evergreen rain forest, and only 231 km 2 in the protected areas. Across all scenarios of climate change, future projections consistently indicate a substantial contraction in the potential distribution of Q. acanthophora . The study identifies priority areas, particularly forests in protected areas, for conservation measures targeting Q. acanthophora populations and their natural habitats.