From Regulatory–Speculative Cycles to Self-Governance: Endogenous Digital Reputation Feedback and Evolutionary Dynamics in High-Speed Rail Hub Ecosystems

Abstract

Addressing the opportunistic behavior of retailers operating within the unique spaces of transportation hub ecosystems, which exploit strong temporal and spatial constraints and geographic monopolies, this paper constructs a three-party evolutionary game model involving transportation hub authorities, micro-merchant enterprises, and transient consumers. Using China’s high-speed rail hubs as the research context, this study develops a theoretical evolutionary game model with numerical simulations and endogenously embeds the backlash from informal digital public opinion into the regulatory decision-making framework. The study thoroughly deconstructs the mechanisms of behavioral evolution and control pathways within highly constrained micro-spaces. The study reveals that: (1) Static, constant regulation, lacking negative feedback linked to the system’s state, inevitably causes the system to fall into a non-convergent “regulation-speculation” cyclical oscillation; (2) A state-dependent dynamic regulatory mechanism can effectively serve as an adaptive damper to quell strategic oscillations; however, because it fails to eliminate speculative premiums, the system becomes locked in a mediocrity trap characterized by low compliance rates; (3) Endogenous digital public opinion leverage can reconfigure the phase space structure and trigger topological bifurcations in the system, breaking the attractor region of the mediocrity equilibrium and driving the game system to undergo a structural transition, with asymptotic convergence to the pure-strategy ideal point. Furthermore, digital empowerment drives consumers to exhibit an inverted U-shaped transient behavioral trajectory of “forced silence—awakening to rights advocacy—rational self-governance,” thereby scientifically deconstructing the public’s dual silence paradox in the digital age. This study not only provides a mathematical basis for the public sector to achieve a paradigm shift from rigid regulation to flexible adaptive governance and structural safe retreat at the micro level, but also offers strategic insights for intertemporal compliance management by micro-merchants.