INTEGRATION OF RISK-BASED RESILIENCE STRATEGIES INTO INTELLIGENT SAFETY MANAGEMENT OF SHIP-PORT CYBER-PHYSICAL SYSTEMS

Abstract

The article presents an integrated scientific and methodological concept of navigation safety management based on risk-oriented and resilience strategies in the context of cyber-physical interaction between ship and port systems. The aim of the study is to develop a conceptual model of risk-oriented planning for maritime transport networks that ensures increased reliability of mooring operations under operational uncertainty. The methodological basis is based on a combination of FMEA, AHP, Bayesian networks, and DSS optimization model approaches. Research results. A dynamic R–v model has been developed that takes into account the influence of ship speed, hydrometeorological conditions, and towing characteristics on the level of operational risk. Stochastic coefficients of degradation, recovery, and risk propagation are used to model uncertainties. A series of simulation studies have been conducted, confirming the correlation between indicators, which provides a quantitative assessment of operational stability. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the creation of a unified cyber-physical model for managing the safety of the ship-port system, capable of adaptively integrating risk-oriented data of various nature in analytical and cognitive circuits. The practical significance of the research lies in the formation of a basis for the implementation of new-generation decision support systems that meet the requirements of IMO MSC.428(98), ISO/IEC 27005, and IEC 62443, ensuring increased operational stability, predictability, and controllability of maritime transport processes.