What Can 150 Years of Census Data Tell Us About Population Impacts from Extreme Weather in Sparsely Populated Northern Australia?

Abstract

Populations in sparsely populated areas are vulnerable to external shocks due to limited proximal infrastructure and low adaptive capacity. In Northern Australia, and for other sparsely populated areas where human habitation is at the “edge” and attracting and retaining people is a challenge, extreme weather events are commonplace. In this study we analyze historical population and hazard data for Northern Australia to identify and profile the scale of population loss across settlement types from extreme weather events. Understanding and charting how past events have impacted the population numbers of settlements in sparsely populated areas is vital for identifying future economic, demographic, and social impacts under climate change. We found that impacts differ according to the type of settlement and hazard, with larger and more economically diversified settlements impacted primarily by floods and cyclones. Findings in this study provide practical insights into the use of census and hazard data to inform more effective and locally tailored policy and planning strategies for disaster mitigation and climate change adaptation for settlements across Northern Australia.