Sharp small-deviation inequalities for sums of independent nonnegative random variables

Abstract

Let $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ be independent nonnegative random variables with $\mathbb{E} X_i\le1$, and write $S=\sum_iX_i$. For $\delta>0$, we prove that \[ \mathbb{P}\left(S<\mathbb{E} S+\delta\right)\ge b_{n,\delta}, \] where $b_{n,\delta}=\delta(n/(n+\delta))^n$ for $0<\delta<1$ and $b_{n,\delta}=(1-1/(n+\delta))^n$ for $\delta\ge1$. The bound is sharp for every $n$ and $\delta\ge 1$. In particular, since $b_{n,\delta} \ge e^{-1}$ for $\delta \ge 1$, our result proves Feige's conjecture [Feige, 2004] in the affirmative for $\delta\ge 1$. The proof is found by ChatGPT 5.6 Pro. It combines the exact Dirichlet calibration theorem of Vlassis and Thomas [Vlassis and Thomas, 2026], which resolves Gaffke's conjecture in statistics, with results in convex geometry including Gr\"unbaum's centroid theorem [Gr\"unbaum, 1960] and its generalization by Letwin and Yaskin [Letwin and Yaskin, 2024].