Impact of Rising Ambient Air and Seawater Temperatures due to Climate Change on Operational Performance of Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) Power Plant

Abstract

Climate change poses significant risks to industries worldwide, affecting not only natural ecosystems but also infrastructure and operational efficiency. For electricity utility companies, particularly Power Generation companies, understanding and addressing the impact of climate change is critical for maintaining operational stability and asset longevity. As climate-related events such as ambient temperature fluctuations and rising sea temperatures become more prevalent, they can compromise the operational performance of electricity utilitity’s assets, leading to potential plant output reductions and increased operational costs. This study focuses on assessing Climate Change Impact from an Operational Perspective for electricity utility’s Asset Readiness which aims to evaluate the specific vulnerabilities that climate change imposes on electric utility’s company’s Combined Cycled Gas Turbine Plant (CCGT). The main objective of this study is conducting quantitative desktop analysis of CCGTplant operational parameters with regards to the change climate scenarios by focusing on performing a comprehensive desktop based quantitative analysis. By quantifying how changing rising ambient temperature and rising sea water temperature influence the CCGT performance, this study quantifies the effect of rising ambient temperature and sea water temperature on the CCGT plant’s net output and heat rate.  This study uses correlation established from Performance Guarantee Test (PGT) and actual CCGT operational data obtained from a 700 MW CCGT located in Malaysia. It was found that a 1°C increase in ambient temperature reduces the power output by 9 MW. This shows a clear inverse relationship between rising ambient temperatures and power output efficiency. It is also observed that for every 1°C increase in ambient temperature, the heat rate increases by approximately 13 kJ/kWh. Additionally, an increase in cooling water temperature directly impacts power output, with every 1°C rise in cooling water temperature resulting in a reduction of 1 MW. This demonstrates the significant impact of both ambient and cooling water temperatures on the efficiency and performance of power generation of the CCGT plant which assists plant management and operators to be prepared and establish suitable mitigation strategies based the projected worse case RCP8.5 ambient temperature rise and sea water temperature rise.