Seasonal and inter-annual evolution of the deformation of two Arctic landslides

Abstract

Landslides in glacial and periglacial environments are increasingly affected by climate change, with sudden failures reported in high mountain regions and the Arctic. The complex mechanisms behind these events are often poorly understood due to a lack of dense in situ data. We investigate two slow-moving landslides in Arctic Norway (70° N), the Jettan and Gámanjunni landslides, located approximately 10 km apart: Jettan, a complex slide in micaschist and calcite marble situated below the permafrost boundary, and Gámanjunni, a rotational slide in micaschist situated above the permafrost boundary. Using over a decade of multi-physics observations, including geodetic, borehole, seismic, and hydrological data, we examine surface and subsurface deformation. Both landslides display similar seasonal surface velocity patterns, with peaks in spring and autumn, likely influenced by pore-water infiltration. At Jettan, twelve years of inclinometer data in boreholes reveal a transition from steady state to seasonal deformation in two shear zones. Since 2020, spring accelerations have intensified in years coinciding with deeper snowpacks and associated melt. These observations, together with statistical modeling, suggest that the shear-zones are becoming increasingly localized and sensitive to pore-water pressure. Conversely, autumn acceleration is not seen in localized shear zones but manifests as distributed volumetric deformation. Seismic velocity variations within the landslide body also exhibit seasonal patterns that correspond with geodetic velocity, interpreted as changes in landslide rigidity due to water infiltration. This integrated analysis of surface and subsurface data offers new insights into the evolving deformation of Arctic landslides, emphasizing the influence of hydrological forcings on both seasonal and long-term deformation processes.