The Islamic State’s Expansion into West Africa: Assessing the Insecurity Implications of the Isis-Boko Haram Alliance, 2015-2020

Abstract

This study examines the expansion of the Islamic State into West Africa through its alliance with Boko Haram between 2015 and 2020, with particular emphasis on the security implications for the Lake Chad Basin. Drawing on Transnational Insurgency Theory, the paper argues that the alliance represents a strategic extension of global jihadist networks into fragile regional security environments through ideological diffusion, operational coordination, and cross-border insurgent integration. The study adopts a qualitative case study approach, relying on secondary data, security reports, and documented insurgent communications to trace the transformation of Boko Haram following its 2015 pledge of allegiance to ISIS and the subsequent emergence of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). The findings demonstrate that the alliance significantly altered insurgency dynamics in West Africa by enhancing organizational restructuring, improving tactical sophistication, expanding recruitment networks, and intensifying cross-border attacks. The transnational linkage facilitated greater resource mobilization, propaganda reach, and strategic recalibration toward territorial consolidation and governance experimentation in parts of northeastern Nigeria and neighboring states. However, the study also finds that internal factionalism and leadership disputes moderated the full consolidation of ISIS control. From a security perspective, the ISIS–Boko Haram alliance contributed to increased regional instability, strained military cooperation mechanisms, heightened civilian vulnerability, and complicated counterterrorism efforts led by national governments and the Multinational Joint Task Force. By applying Transnational Insurgency Theory, the paper concludes that the alliance illustrates how global jihadist movements exploit local grievances and porous borders to embed themselves within regional conflicts, thereby transforming localized insurgencies into interconnected transnational security threats. The study contributes to debates on global terrorism diffusion and offers policy relevant insights for strengthening regional counterinsurgency coordination.