The Impact of the Bank of Russia's Monetary Policy on Private Sector Investment Activity: Challenges and Patterns

Abstract

The article examines how the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia affects the investment decisions of private companies. Based on data from 2015–2025, it is shown that the relationship between the key rate and investment is not straightforward: at moderate rate values, businesses adapt, but when certain thresholds are crossed, the reaction becomes sharp. Special attention is paid to the fact that small and medium-sized enterprises respond to policy tightening faster and more strongly than large corporations that have access to preferential financing. It has been concluded that uncertainty in economic policy itself hinders investment, and therefore the predictability of regulatory decisions is no less important than the interest rate level.