Determinants of Food Insecurity: An Application of the Rasch and Binary Logistic Models to Household Survey Data in Selected Local Government Areas of Adamawa State, Nigeria

Abstract

Food insecurity remains a fundamental challenge in Nigeria, aggravated by economic hardship, climate variability and conflicts, particularly in some states in the Northeast. Conventional indicators of food insecurity often fail to capture the experiential measures of food access. This study examines the dynamics of food insecurity among peri-urban households in Adamawa State utilizing the Rasch measurement model and binary logistic regression technique. Applying a cross sectional survey design and primary data collected from 1,198 peri-urban households from three heterogeneous Local Government Areas (Ganye, Mubi North, and Yola North) representing each Senatorial District, deploying a multi-stage sampling technique. The 8-item food insecurity experience scale (FIES) was analyzed utilizing the Rasch procedure to validate the scale and make a continuous quantitative severity measure, which informs the choice of a binary logistic regression technique to identify socioeconomic and structural determinants. The Rasch analysis confirmed the one-dimensionality and robustness of the FIES framework, establishing a distinct severity hierarchy from psychological worry to ultimate severe caloric deficiency. Furthermore, the logistic regression outcomes showed that external shocks are the fundamental determinants of food insecurity. Precisely, conflict-related displacement, drought and flooding significantly increased the likelihood of food insecurity. Conversely, household asset stock, level of education, and access to credit serve as a protective buffer against food insecurity. Based on the findings, the study concludes that food insecurity in peri-urban centers in Adamawa State is primarily driven by the destruction of household entitlements through measures of climate change and conflict shocks. It recommends the urgent implementation of shock-responsive conditional transfer payments and the deepening of financial inclusion in the peri-urban areas to build individual household economic resilience.