Population shrinkage in China’s three major urban agglomerations: spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors

Abstract

Urban population shrinkage has become a critical challenge confronting sustainable urban development across China. However, systematic cross-regional and multi-type comparative investigations remain scarce in the existing literature. Taking the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the mainland cities of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as research objects, this paper investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of population shrinkage using panel data from 2010 to 2024. A two-way fixed-effects panel regression model is constructed to examine the impacts of multidimensional factors and their regional heterogeneity. The findings reveal pronounced regional heterogeneity. The BTH region presents a shrinkage trajectory spreading from peripheral cities to core metropolitan centers; the YRD experiences extensive mild population shrinkage alongside localized severe contraction; whereas the mainland cities of the GBA maintain steady population growth throughout the study period, with no shrinking cities identified. Two-way fixed-effects models further confirm that natural population growth, economic development, and transportation infrastructure constitute the primary drivers, with their impacts exhibiting significant heterogeneity across the three urban agglomerations. In response to differentiated urban governance needs, this study proposes context-specific smart shrinkage strategies tailored to each urban agglomeration. The findings enrich the empirical literature on urban shrinkage in Chinese megaregions and provide scientific references for sustainable urban management and coordinated regional development policymaking.