METHOD OF SUSTAINABLE ENTERPRISE SUPPLY BASED ON A BUSINESS CONTINUITY APPROACH UNDER MARTIAL LAW CONDITIONS

Abstract

This article is devoted to the development of a method for ensuring a risk-resilient supply chain for enterprises, based on a business continuity approach under martial law. The relevance of this research stems from the disruption of logistical links, instability in the supply of resources, and the intensification of interrelated threats to the functioning of enterprises. Under such circumstances, supply chain management requires the alignment of the needs of critical business processes with the capacity to provide timely early warning and to mitigate disruptions. The aim of the study is to develop a method that formalises the relationship between environmental signals, risk forecasts, critical process states and mitigating actions. The proposed method forms a closed-loop predictive-adaptive management cycle, encompassing the forecasting of the enterprise’s needs, environmental monitoring and the assessment of supply risks. Subsequent stages involve the identification of critical states, the formulation of compensatory measures, their implementation and the verification of their effectiveness. A distinctive feature of the method is the integration of a conceptual model of risk-resilient supply, the factor structure of an extreme environment, risk models and artificial intelligence mechanisms. The focus is on identifying ‘weak signals’ that may indicate the approach of adverse changes and the need to adjust supply processes. The method provides for forecasting the development of risks over time and identifying critical failure points at the interfaces between interrelated processes. The assessment of the system’s survival threshold is aimed at establishing the boundary conditions for maintaining its ability to meet the enterprise’s critical needs. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed method involves formalising the interaction between forecast assessments, process state characteristics and compensatory decisions within a single management cycle. Feedback involves refining management actions in line with the results obtained and changes in the external environment. The practical significance of the method lies in creating a methodological framework for the timely preparation of adaptive decisions and the maintenance of business continuity. Its application is geared towards mitigating the consequences of supply disruptions and aligning compensatory measures with the enterprise’s time and resource constraints. The effectiveness of its application depends on the reliability of the data, the accuracy of forecasting and the feasibility of the management decisions made. Further research will involve testing the method, quantitatively assessing its effectiveness, and determining the conditions for the automated implementation of compensatory actions.