Patterns of flood preparedness and perception in a marginalised community in the Sol Plaatje Municipality, in the Northern Cape

Abstract

Flooding poses a growing threat to South Africa’s urban poor, yet limited research has examined how socio-demographic factors and governance intersect to shape household preparedness in marginalised townships. This study addresses that gap by analysing flood preparedness and risk perception in Green Point, a historically under-resourced settlement within the Sol Plaatje Municipality. Data were collected from 114 households through structured questionnaires and open-ended responses, using a mixed-methods design. Quantitative analysis combined chi-square tests, a random forest classifier and multiple correspondence analysis to identify the key socio-economic predictors of preparedness, while qualitative data were thematically analysed to capture the lived experiences and perceptions of municipal performance. Education and employment strongly determined preparedness (χ2 = 15.25, p = 0.004), whereas perceptions of institutional readiness showed weak predictive power. Respondents cited blocked drainage, waste mismanagement and weak municipal coordination as core drivers of recurrent floods. The novelty of this study lies in integrating statistical and perceptual evidence to reveal that vulnerability is socially patterned and governance dependent. Findings underscore the need for equity-focused disaster risk-reduction strategies in under-resourced municipalities, including targeted risk communication, community-based planning and infrastructure investment aligned with local socio-economic realities. Contribution Overall, the study finds that flood risk in Green Point is not only a function of environmental exposure but also systemic governance and socio-economic exclusion. Residents are aware of the risks and are willing to contribute to solutions, yet structural support is lacking. The study concludes with targeted, equity-focused recommendations for policy and community engagement in DRR.