CHANGES IN GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS FROM POLISH AGRICULTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on the volume and structure of direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Polish agriculture between 2017 and 2023. The analysis was based on secondary data obtained from Eurostat and the National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE). All emissions were expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq). The results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic had no significant impact on GHG emissions from agriculture. The war in Ukraine had a considerably stronger impact, leading to a sharp increase in the prices of energy carriers and mineral fertilizers (by 210-267%). This resulted in a nearly 10% reduction in emissions associated with the use of inorganic fertilizers in 2022. A decline in GHG emissions from the pig sector was also observed, associated with a 6% reduction in the pig population due to rising production costs and the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic. Despite the polycrisis, total GHG emissions from agriculture remained relatively stable between 2017 and 2023, with annual changes not exceeding 4%.