Experiments on Context-is-Key and Time-MMD across two TSFM backbones (Chronos and TimesFM) and four LLMs show that \rc{} delivers consistent improvements across model choices, supporting sequential search as an effective training-free approach to text-conditioned forecasting.
Abstract
Text-conditioned time-series forecasting predicts a series from both its numerical history and natural-language context, allowing forecasts to account for events and constraints that the past alone cannot reveal. This requires both reliable numerical forecasting and the ability to interpret contextual information. Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide strong numerical forecasts, while large language models (LLMs) can reason over text, but combining their strengths remains challenging because asking an LLM to generate or revise forecast values directly can distort the temporal structure captured by the TSFM. We instead formulate forecasting as a planning problem over TSFM-generated trajectories. The frozen TSFM acts as a simulator that proposes numerical continuations, while the LLM acts as a policy and value function that guides candidate selection and evaluates completed trajectories against the context. We instantiate this as \rc{} (\textbf{L}LM \textbf{A}s \textbf{F}orecasting \textbf{P}lanner), a training-free framework that bridges the modality gap without retraining either model, using Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) over the forecast horizon with a \emph{Ranker} LLM as policy and a \emph{Judge} LLM as value function. Experiments on Context-is-Key and Time-MMD across two TSFM backbones (Chronos and TimesFM) and four LLMs show that \rc{} delivers consistent improvements across model choices, supporting sequential search as an effective training-free approach to text-conditioned forecasting.
It is concluded that, on this benchmark and within this family of frozen-encoder architectures, text content is not the operative signal behind the reported gains and the perturbation protocol and evaluation harness are released as a reusable diagnostic toolkit.
K. Sridhar, Atharva Gupta, Nishant Pradhan et al.· 0 citations
This work investigates LLM-based forecasting agents, meaning systems in which a language model contributes to a scored prediction about a future or currently unobserved target, and organizes architectures into three groups.
Xiaogang Xu, Jiaqi Tang, Jianmin Chen et al.· 0 citations
REATS is proposed, which leverages LLM reasoning capabilities as an intelligent ensemble router that jointly processes textual temporal pattern descriptions and numerical features to produce interpretable, sample-adaptive ensemble weights through chain-of-thought reasoning.
Most time series (TS) models are specialized for a single task, either understanding (i.e., returning text answers about a TS) or generation (i.e., returning a numeric forecast). Only recently have unified models begun to handle the two within a single architecture. Even these models, however, produce the two outputs as task-separated paths and cannot predict a series and explain why that prediction arises within a single coherent response. In this paper, we argue for a task-fused model that jointly produces 1) prediction (generation) and 2) selfexplanation (understanding), thereby integrating 1) numerical TS forecasting and 2) interpretable text reasoning within a single response. To enable the systematic study of this capability, we present both a benchmark and a recipe that jointly address the two tasks. The benchmark, ReasonTS-Bench, identifies five fundamental patterns underlying TS and enables the joint evaluation of both tasks. ReasonCast, our recipe for finetuning any LLM to perform both tasks jointly, yields a model that generates a reasoning chain and a forecast together in a single autoregressive pass. Extensive experiments show that ReasonCast outperforms both LLMs and TS models on prediction accuracy while producing verifiable, causal reasoning. Code is available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/reasoncast.
Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee et al.· 0 citations
CastClaw is presented, a human-in-the-loop autonomous forecasting system built through forecasting-oriented harness engineering that connects data, specialized models, analytical tools, user input, and a versioned execution record in one runtime.
Xiao-Yu Tao, Mingyue Cheng, Ze Guo et al.· 0 citations
Experiments on the Time-MMD benchmark show that SCENARIODIFF is especially effective in event-driven domains, demonstrating the value of explicit hierarchical scenario guidance for multimodal time series forecasting.
Tuan-Binh Tran, Dat Nguyen Cong, Duc-Trong Le et al.· 0 citations
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