Transportation Safety, and Supply Chain Resilience in Road-Based Crude Oil Logistics: Evidence from a Conflict‐Affected Region
Abstract
Abstract Crude oil transport is a vital component of global energy supply chains; however, it is riddled with systemic risks, including human error, infrastructure fragility, security vulnerabilities, and regulatory deficiencies. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of crude oil transport, with particular emphasis on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG), a semi-autonomous territory that has emerged as a significant oil producer despite enduring geopolitical instability. By triangulating peer-reviewed literature, industry reports, regulatory documents, and primary survey data from 150 public respondents and 50 tanker drivers and owners within the KRG, this study articulates the multifaceted risks associated with road-based crude oil transport. Economic regression analysis, employing logistic regression, difference-in-differences, and ordered probit models, reveals that regular safety training reduces the odds of an accident by 58.4% (p=0.005); the 2023-2025 KRG-Turkey pipeline suspension caused approximately $12.5 billion in economic losses; and pipeline resumption increased realised prices by 38.50 per barrel (p<0.001). Key findings indicate that public awareness of transport risks is moderate, with only 11% expressing high confidence in regulatory oversight; 73% of respondents identified tanker accidents as their primary environmental concern; 46% of drivers reported experiencing accidents, while 74% witnessed spills or leaks; infrastructure deficits, including poor road conditions reported by 68% of drivers and inadequate equipment, constitute primary operational hazards; and geopolitical disruptions aggravate safety vulnerabilities by increasing reliance on higher-risk road transport. Cost-benefit analysis indicates that driver training programmes and GPS tracking mandates yield benefit-cost ratios of 25.4:1 and 25.7:1, respectively. The paper proposes a novel analytical framework that integrates human factors, security threats, and regulatory responses, offering evidence-based recommendations for policy reform in conflict-affected oil-producing regions.