A Bayesian One-Sample Test for the Mean of Functional Data

Abstract

In the context of functional data analysis, we propose a Bayesian test to assess whether the mean function of a Gaussian population is identically zero. By leveraging the structure of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) associated with the covariance function of the underlying process, we approximate the mean by a finite linear combination of kernel sections. This finite-dimensional representation arises from the natural assumption that the mean lies in the corresponding RKHS, enabling a parametric Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing through a spike-and-slab prior on the coefficients. Given the absence of a canonical reference measure on infinite-dimensional spaces, the likelihood is expressed via a Radon-Nikodym derivative between induced Gaussian measures. Since the number of kernel sections is unknown, we employ reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to explore the trans-dimensional parameter space and estimate the posterior distribution. From the resulting posterior samples we construct estimators of the posterior probability of the null hypothesis and the Bayes factor, providing quantifiable evidence against the null and supporting informed decisions under uncertainty. Furthermore, to validate this methodology we establish near-optimal posterior contraction rates for the proposed test under mild conditions, demonstrate its empirical performance on simulated data sets, and illustrate its application with real climate data.