Energy Transition in Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Five African Countries

Abstract

Global energy transition remains a critical challenge for reducing carbon emissions and protecting the environment, with solar energy adoption driving improvements in both energy efficiency and conservation. This research focuses on Africa's transition from fossil fuels to solar energy. As population growth and blackouts increase, African countries must transition from unreliable, centralized national grids to decentralized, low-carbon alternatives that ensure quality household electricity. While some countries have advanced in this transition to sustainable solar energy, others lag behind. The limited access to electricity hinders the African continent's healthcare, education, economic growth, and mortality rates. This research establishes the importance of solar energy adoption in addressing these developmental challenges by asking: why does the transition to renewable energy sources (solar) differ among African countries? Consequently, this study aims to uncover the socioeconomic and political factors that impede or facilitate these disparities. Using a mixed-methods approach to understand this complex phenomenon in a real-world setting, this study employs Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and comparative analysis. ABM simulates how household decision-making regarding solar uptake produces broader system-level results, while a comparative analysis of five country case studies - Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa - identifies patterns and develops robust explanations. Finally, this research contributes to the international political economy literature by comparing solar adoption outcomes across five unique African nations to facilitate a quicker regional transition. It introduces Diffusion of Innovations (DOI) theory to illustrate how the number of adopters grows over time and to determine the ongoing progression of the transmission process. The findings show that socioeconomic factors such as cost and budget constraints, transmissibility of solar, and network density are highly influential in shaping adoption patterns across the five selected countries. These results imply that lagging African countries need to implement policies that incentivize solar uptake. Meanwhile, countries reaching a saturation point should develop policies addressing underlying sustainability challenges. This can be achieved by learning from the success stories of countries with similar profiles and tailoring those insights into country-specific needs.