Evaluating Energy Consumption drivers in Saudi Arabia and Prioritizing Sustainable Solutions: An FAHP Approach

Abstract

Saudi Arabia faces rising energy demand driven by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and population growth, presenting major sustainability challenges. This study employs the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to evaluate the key determinants of energy consumption and to prioritize sustainable alternatives. energy-consumption drivers and strategies were identified through a systematic literature review and assessed using expert-based pairwise comparisons. A panel of highly experienced experts (n=7) independently completed full pairwise comparison matrices. After individual consistency testing, corresponding judgments were transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers and aggregated component-wise using the geometric mean before fuzzy weighting, defuzzification, and normalization. Results reveal that the industrial sector (0.385) and urbanization (0.208) are the most influential drivers of energy demand, reflecting the energy-intensive nature of manufacturing and the growing reliance on air conditioning in households. Economic growth and transportation also play substantial roles, whereas climate conditions and the residential sector were less significant. Among alternatives, sustainable urban form (0.322) and sustainable infrastructure (0.301) ranked highest, supported by energy-efficient buildings and urban greening. These findings align with global studies emphasizing efficiency and infrastructure as pillars of sustainable urban planning, while reflecting Saudi-specific priorities. The study highlights FAHP’s utility in structuring expert judgment under uncertainty and provides actionable insights for integrating energy efficiency into Saudi Vision 2030, offering a balanced framework for managing the country’s energy transition.