Strengthening Key Technologies versus Process Reformations: A Comparison of the Low-Carbon Transition Pathways of China’s Iron and Steel Industry

Abstract

As a hard-to-abate sector and an industrial backbone, the iron and steel industry involves a low-carbon transition that is crucial for China to achieve green growth and emission reduction targets. This study developed an innovative integrated iron&steel assessment model (IIAM), combining technology-choice modules with bottom-up technological analysis and top-down macroeconomic simulation to conduct low-carbon transition pathway analysis. In comparison with a carbon-reduction scenario in which reducing CO2 emissions relies on scaling down production and constrained economic growth, the planned national iron and steel industry development pathway has advantages in technological progress and structural adjustments. To realize potentially greater synergistic energy–environmental–economic benefits, two sets of substitutive low-carbon transition pathways are proposed on the basis of forward-looking technologies and production processes reformation. Among key technology deployment pathways, increasing scrap utilization is the preferred option, and hydrogen metallurgy excels in cleaning the energy mix. Production process reformation pathways can further unlock the potential for carbon mitigation, air-pollution control, resource use, and economic growth, yet they involve cost increases. The short-term strategy should prioritize existing long-process retrofitting, whereas the long-term transition should focus on scrap utilization, hydrogen-based metallurgy, and more breakthrough technological innovations.