The impact of intra-European used-car trade on electric vehicle market diffusion and greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

Extended abstract 6-154-26 The European Union aims to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. In road transport, switching to electric powertrains is essential to reach this goal. However, there are significant regional disparities among member states in this transition: while battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids have already reached a market share of over 50% in Northern Europe and the Netherlands, they remain relatively insignificant in much of Southern and Eastern Europe. Even after all vehicles with an internal combustion engine are eventually phased out of the new car market, national passenger car fleets are expected to transform at different speeds due to varying vehicle lifespans and the differing importance of the used-car market across Europe. The trade of used cars within Europe could play an important role in future transition dynamics. In particular, the uptake of electric vehicles in countries that are net importers of used cars could be constrained by the limited availability of used electric vehicles from net exporting countries. Therefore, this work aims to integrate the pan-European availability of used cars by powertrain into ALADIN, an agent-based model that simulates the uptake of alternative powertrains based on utility maximization for several thousand real-world driving profiles. Using scenario-based analyses with the extended model, we seek to address two research questions: First, we examine how accounting for cross-border flows of used cars affects the model’s projected energy and emission scenarios for the European passenger car sector. Second, we analyze how a delayed phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles in the new car market impacts the transformation of the overall car stock and the resulting energy demand and emissions across Europe. Read the full abstract. Download presentation.