FORECAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA’S CROP PRODUCTION INDUSTRY TAKING INTO ACCOUNTRESOURCE OPTIMIZATION AND PRODUCER DIFFERENTIATION

Abstract

The paper substantiates a long-term forecast of Russia’s crop production industry to 2030 under resource constraints and heterogeneous producer competitiveness. The industry forecast is formed on the basis of differentiated trajectories of farms in classes A, B and D (an aggregated three- class scheme) and relies on strategic documents of agrarian policy as well as on the first author’s dissertation results (DEA, rating model, Malmquist index, three- level scenario system). It is shown that an industry forecast cannot be reduced to extrapolating gross harvests and should include policy stages, targeted measuresby farm class, and agrochemical service as an institution of resource optimization. Under budget constraints, for farms with a medium rating (class B) the resource- optimization scenario is preferable: higher yields with control of costs and environmental load. Policy stages, class-targeted support measures and agrochemical service as a tool of resource optimization are proposed; target parameters and recommendations for AIC authorities are formulated.