Storm Kristin (2026): Cascading Multi-Hazard Impacts of Sequential Events, Systemic Disruption and Governance Challenges in Mainland Portugal

Abstract

Storm Kristin, which struck Portugal on 28 January 2026, generated one of the most disruptive multi-hazard events in recent decades. Extreme winds, followed by successive episodes of intense rainfall, triggered a cascade of impacts across central-western Portugal and parts of Spain, including flooding, coastal erosion, hazardous nearshore currents, and numerous landslides. Approximately eight million pine trees were blown down, obstructing transport networks and damaging power and telecommunications infrastructures. Widespread interruptions to essential services, industrial activity, and daily life persisted for more than two months. Although fatalities were limited due to the timing of the strongest winds, the event caused extensive damage to residential and industrial buildings, large-scale population displacement, and significant economic losses. In response, the Portuguese Government declared a state of calamity, affecting around 17.1% of the national population. This paper examines the cascading interactions among hazards and their systemic consequences, highlighting critical shortcomings in scientific knowledge, risk governance, and societal preparedness. It also discusses the prolonged recovery challenges, including the heightened wildfire risk posed by vast accumulations of fallen wood. Finally, the paper proposes an integrated assessment framework based on a dynamic “Disruption Index” and presents recommendations to support recovery and strengthen resilience to future compound and cascading disasters.