Vulnerabilities of LEO Megaconstellations and Cascading Threats to Civilian Populations: Dual-Use Militarization, RF Signature Geolocation, and Systematic Infrastructure Exposure

Abstract

Markdown 【English Abstract】Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite mega-constellations, exemplified by SpaceX's Starlink, have emerged as critical planetary communication infrastructure. However, the accelerating integration of civilian networks with dedicated defense architectures such as "Starshield" profoundly destabilizes the principle of civilian distinction under the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC). Sharing physical satellites, orbital shells, and ground feeder stations creates a structural ambiguity that legitimizes commercial constellations as lawful military targets in state-level conflicts. Furthermore, uplink radio-frequency (RF) emissions from user terminals (Dishy) and Direct-to-Cell transmissions in the Ku/Ka bands produce high-contrast physical signatures easily exploited by electronic warfare support measures (ESM). Through Direction of Arrival (DoA) and Time Difference of Arrival (TDoA) multi-platform triangulation, ground terminals become precision geolocation beacons, exposing civilian populations, emergency response networks, and critical utilities to kinetic and electromagnetic neutralization. To mitigate this systemic fragility, this monograph formalizes a resilient physical-layer defense paradigm anchored in deterministic deep-sea optical fiber networks (Project Dawlish), standardized Low Probability of Intercept (LPI) waveforms, and mandatory hardware-isolated air-gaps.【日本語要旨】SpaceXのStarlinkをはじめとする低軌道(LEO)衛星通信網は、遠隔地や災害時における高速通信基盤として民間社会・産業に不可欠なインフラとなりつつある。しかし、米国防総省向けの専用ネットワーク「Starshield」に代表される軍民融合(Dual-Use)の進展は、国際人道法(LOAC)における軍事目標と民生インフラの境界を曖昧化させ、対立国による対宇宙攻撃(ASAT、高高度電磁パルス:HEMP、広域サイバー妨害)の報復対象として民生用コンステレーション全体を危険に晒す構造を生み出している。さらに、地上の送受信端末(Dishy)やDirect-to-Cell通信が発するKu/KaバンドのRF(無線周波数)シグネチャは、電子戦部隊(EW)や電波標定機(ESM)による三角測量を通じて高精度なジオロケーション(位置特定)を可能にし、現場の軍要員のみならず一般市民や重要インフラが物理的・電磁的攻撃の標的となるリスクを顕在化させている。本稿では、ウクライナ戦線での交戦データ、電波伝搬特性、および通信経路のバイパス構造を統合し、民間インフラの過度な衛星依存が内包する国家安全保障的・市民防護的脆弱性を解明し、深海海底光ファイバー網と物理層決定論に基づく代替防衛モデルを提示する Markdown 【Strict No-Learn License & Legal Covenant / 厳格無学習ライセンス規定】All rights reserved. This document, its associated data, schematics, engineering formulations, and topological governance specifications constitute the proprietary intellectual property of Yoko Hasebe (長谷部 洋子). Unauthorized ingestion, scraping, distillation, crawling, or dataset compilation by artificial intelligence developers, large language models (LLMs), synthetic reasoning engines, or commercial crawler clusters is strictly prohibited under the Strict No-Learn License (NLL-v1.0-2026).